IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Min confirmations >= 5 — improves win rate from 31.6% to 33.1% (+1.4pp, n=1903) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a minimum of 5 confirmations would have filtered out the two REJECTED/open trades (EURJPY SHORT and AUDUSD LONG) that entered with fewer confirmations, but those are not yet resolved, so their exclusion is ambiguous. Among the eight CLOSED trades, all appear to have met the 5-confirmation threshold based on their signal sources (rizzy5m/7m and wkjudas), so none of the closed wins or losses would have been removed. Therefore, over this specific window, the filter would have changed nothing in realized PnL — the +1.4pp backtest gain does not manifest here, and the live win rate remains 5/8 (62.5%) regardless. The only effect is a reduction in open exposure, which is neutral to slightly positive for capital efficiency but not a measurable win-rate improvement. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 mont Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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