Stress Testing Photovoltaic Delivery Under Maritime Disruptions

Photovoltaic (PV) delivery security depends on shipment position and inventory coverage. We develop the Route-Adaptive Multilayer Photovoltaic Supply (PV-RAMPS) model, a deterministic scenario stress test of release, passage queues, route adaptation, inventory, and due-date service. Using 2024 bilateral cell and module trade, we compare delivery outcomes with the same-inventory deletion over 240 days. In the Jeddah reference, dailyized-fluid dispatch, a 60-day disruption, and 30-day inventory yield PV product shortfalls of USD 757 million under deletion and USD 118 million under PV-RAMPS. Reductions are 84.5% in value and 84.3% in complete-case module-only gross trade-equivalent GW. This reference is Red Sea-driven; gateway assignments change exposure to the other operators. Across the declared joint grid, minimum total-scenario reductions fall to 5.37% in value and 3.31% in GW. Matched shock-excess minima are 11.97% and 8.09%. These minima bound the tested configurations, not future events. Traffic observations support mechanism plausibility, but the monthly PV panel fails the prespecified inferential criteria and does not corroborate simulated loss magnitudes. Separate accounts show why preserving cargo can clear backlog without preventing missed delivery dates. The framework connects shipment position, information timing, and inventory coverage to short-run delivery security.