Tourism Development and Rural Income Growth: A Micro-Macro Dual Perspective

This study examines whether household income gains from tourism aggregate into regional growth. Drawing on structural transformation theory and Stolper–Samuelson factor-price logic, it treats tourism as a sector-specific demand shock. A time-varying difference-in-differences design applied to China Family Panel Studies data (2012–2022) estimates the household-level effect of the National Rural Tourism Demonstration County policy, while spatial panel models on provincial data (2011–2023) account for province-specific trajectories and exposure to the National Rural Revitalization Strategy. Tourism raises rural household income and is positively associated with provincial rural income. The regional relationship is predominantly spatially indirect; only wage income shows a significant positive local association. Human capital and consumer-market development strengthen the tourism–wage relationship, but bootstrap tests find no evidence that employment reallocation mediates it. Evidence for an income channel, therefore, does not establish the employment reallocation mechanism. Tourism strategies should pair destination promotion with workforce development and interprovincial coordination.