Exploring the impact of multidimensional complexity interplay on the success of mega infrastructure projects

Complexity is an inherent characteristic of mega infrastructure projects (MIPs), playing a crucial role in determining their success. While existing research has explored the effects of individual complexity factors, the interplay of multidimensional complexities and their collective impact on MIP success remains underexamined. This study systematically identifies complexity factors from both internal and external dimensions, leveraging the TOE framework and grounded theory, and empirically investigates their dynamic interactions. Seven key complexity factors are identified and hypotheses regarding their interplay and influence on the success of MIP are proposed and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM). The findings reveal that external complexity amplifies the effect of internal complexity on the success of MIPs. Furthermore, internal complexity factors exhibit substantial interaction effect, with the latter exerting a stronger impact compared to the former. Collectively, complexity factors demonstrate a negative impact on the success of MIPs. This research advances the understanding of MIP complexity by examining the dynamic interaction among multidimensional complexity factors. It also provides practical insights for project managers to effectively identify and manage critical internal and external complexity drivers, thereby improving the likelihood of success for MIPs.