Between hype and uncertainty: Expert assessments of nuclear small-modular reactors (SMRs) under data center energy boom

The unprecedented growth in artificial intelligence and data center energy demand has renewed interest in small modular reactors (SMRs) as a potential low-carbon baseload solution. Yet significant uncertainty persists around the techno-economic characteristics and policy solutions necessary for SMR commercialization in the United States. This inadvertently leaves policymakers navigating critical decisions about resource allocation, regulatory reform, and long-term energy planning without a clear picture of near-term prospects of SMRs. This study addresses that gap by conducting a mixed methods expert survey of 33 professionals from industry, academia, government, utilities, and think tanks. Results collectively suggest a moderate confidence in an outlook with high overnight capital cost of over $6000/kW and cost overruns of over 30%, falling short of DOE's commercialization target. They also reflect cautious optimism rooted in the expectation of an incremental learning rate due to rapid electricity demand growth from data centers and standardization of design. Overall, experts highlight a significant gap between promotional narratives and realistic techno-economic trajectories.