Consumer substitution under tariff countermeasures: third-country imports and innovated domestic products

Purpose This study examines how awareness of China's tariff countermeasures is associated with Chinese consumers' willingness to pay (WTP) for products from different origins through the lens of cognitive appraisal theory (CAT), novel in this context. It also investigates the mediating roles of supply-chain risk perception and technological autonomy awareness. Design/methodology/approach This study used a double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) experiment with 676 consumers in Beijing and Shanghai. WTP was estimated for US-imported, Peruvian-imported and premium domestic blueberries using ordered probit models and bias-corrected bootstrap mediation tests. Findings Consumer WTP differs markedly across product origins. Relative to the domestic benchmark, WTP is lowest for US-imported blueberries and higher for Peruvian-imported and premium domestic blueberries, with the largest differential attached to the premium domestic option. Awareness of countermeasures significantly increases WTP for third-country and premium domestic alternatives. Supply-chain risk perception mediates the shift toward neutral third-country imports, whereas technological autonomy awareness mediates the preference for premium domestic products. Research limitations/implications The evidence is drawn from one product category and from consumers across two major Chinese cities, which may limit generalizability. The study extends research on trade conflict and consumer substitution by applying CAT to origin-based WTP reallocation. Practical implications Consumer responses reveal selective substitution in the context of countermeasures. Distinguishing between reliabiiity of third-country substitutes and technology embedded in domestic alternatives creates value for consumers measured as WTP. Third-country exporters may benefit from emphasizing supply reliability. Domestic firms may benefit from positive interaction between consumer ethnocentrism and their technological readiness. Originality/value This study is among the first to empirically examine consumer substitution during a real-time trade conflict. This research advances political consumerism theory by incorporating supply-chain risk perception and technological autonomy awareness as mediating mechanisms between countermeasure awareness and WTP. The study provides novel empirical evidence from a large scale choice experiment offering new insights into consumer decision making and cross-product substitution under geopolitical pressure.