Scenario and evidence sensitivity in screening thermal energy storage materials for solar dryers

Thermal energy storage selection for solar dryers depends on operating temperature, installation geometry, engineering evidence and stakeholder priorities. This study presents an auditable screening framework for 12 sensible, latent and nano-enhanced candidates over three illustrative storage-temperature intervals: 30–50, 40–65 and 55–80 °C. Temperature checks are separated from unresolved project-specific gates. Heating and cooling latent-energy budgets, installed capacity, seven ordinal criteria and stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis are combined. Reported characteristic transition temperatures are distinguished from assumed transition widths. After reconciling three qualitative scores with their stated anchors, pebbles have the highest S2 base utility (3.45/5) and first-rank acceptability (33.8%) under uniform-simplex preferences; beeswax and reference paraffin follow at 17.8% and 17.2%. Paraffin subsample selections based on base materials are preference-dependent. Results vary depending on scoring assumptions and other factors, including absent candidates and modelling decisions. Reduced thermal conductivity is not synonymous with enthalpy loss measured in other tests. Published studies of dryers offer some comparative information but no confirmation of results. This approach identifies potential applications for paraffin; further material testing and analysis on the relevant system, including thermal, hydraulic, and cost and safety tests, are needed to select materials.