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September 10, 2025Open Access

Tornadic Event in Portugal in March 2024: Synoptic environment and Forecasting

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Forecasts accurately predicted tornadoes in Portugal, confirming the efficacy of high-resolution models and observing conditions.
Key features like elevated CAPE and storm-relative helicity contributed to the environment that fosters tornado development.
Ensemble numerical weather predictions from ECMWF and AROME indicated high-impact weather potentials with significant uncertainties.
Operational forecasting processes combined deterministic and probabilistic guidance for effective prediction of severe convective storms.

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Analysis identified tornadoes in Portugal, highlighting the role of NWP and mesoscale conditions in forecasting.

Sousa et al. (2025) studied this question.

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