Reliability Analysis and Risk Assessment for Settlement of Cohesive Soil Layer Induced by Undercrossing Tunnel Excavation

Due to the complex urban geological environment and physicochemical interactions, the physical and mechanical parameters of the cohesive soil layer in the adjacent construction area show strong spatial variability and correlation. In addition, the actual exploration and test data are very limited because of limited technical and economic conditions. This severely restricts the ability to evaluate the stability of adjacent structures and to prevent and control instability disasters during subway construction. In this study, a generation method of limited sample data for the cohesive soil layer in the adjacent construction area is proposed. The spatial variability and correlation of uncertain mechanical parameters for the clay layer are quantified using incomplete probability data. A calculation method of uncertain settlement for the cohesive soil layer in the adjacent construction area is developed. The distribution fitting tests of settlement characteristics are conducted with different joint distribution functions and correlation structure. A reliability analysis and risk assessment methodology for the settlement of the cohesive soil layer is presented. The reliability value and failure probability induced by undercrossing tunnel excavation are analyzed and predicted. The results show that the bootstrap simulated sampling and random field method can quantify the cohesive soil layer heterogeneity reasonably under limited investigation data. Different joint distribution and correlation structure functions have different effects on the distribution fitting test. The uncertain settlement of the upper center of the tunnel is the largest, and the failure disaster is most likely to occur. The effects of a copula structure and correlation parameter on the failure probability of the cohesive soil layer are sensitive. This research can provide scientific support for public safety and sustainable development in urban subway construction.