Modeling Individual Preference Evolution and Choice in a Dynamic Group Setting

Organizational buying and strategic marketing decisions often emerge from a messy process of belief accommodation and compromise. In a longitudinal field study, the authors investigate how the beliefs and preferences of individual actors in a collective decision developed and changed. This provides a rare opportunity to relate beliefs and social influence to articulated preferences, as well as to evaluate the basic assumptions that underlie persuasive arguments theory, a prominent theory of group polarization. Econometric models are employed to test proposed relationships between group processes and outcomes. A model incorporating both cognitive and social process variables accurately predicts 95% of the actors’ top choices. The authors provide new insights for understanding the dynamics underlying group polarization and exploring group processes in marketing.