Key result
Precipitation in the pre-monsoon season was positively associated with foot-and-mouth disease incidence in cattle and buffalo in Bangladesh (p = 0.0008).
Why the study?
Foot-and-mouth disease is highly endemic in Bangladesh, motivating the identification of space-time clusters, hotspots, and risk factors to target surveillance and vaccination in resource-limited settings.
Observational (n=548,817)
Yes
p-value: p=0.0008
Spatial analysis identifies high-risk zones and climate associations for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Bangladesh, suggesting targeted vaccination and surveillance strategies.
Pre-monsoon precipitation may signal elevated FMD risk in Bangladeshi livestock; hypothesis-generating for climate-informed surveillance.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is highly endemic in Bangladesh. Using passive surveillance data (case records from all 64 districts of Bangladesh, 2014–2017) and district domestic ruminant population estimates, we calculated FMD cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk per district, conducted cluster (Moran’s spatial autocorrelation and scan statistics) and hotspot analysis (local indicator of spatial association statistic), created predictive maps and identified risk factors using a geographically weighted regression model. A total of 548,817 FMD cases in cattle and buffalo were reported during the four-year study period. The highest proportion (31.5%) of cases were reported during the post-monsoon season, and from Chattogram (29.2%) division. Five space-time clusters, 9 local clusters, and 14 hotspots were identified. Overall, higher cumulative incidences of FMD were consistently predicted in eastern parts of Bangladesh. The precipitation in the pre-monsoon season (p = 0.0008) was positively associated with FMD in Bangladesh. Results suggest climate plays an important role in the epidemiology of FMD in Bangladesh, and high risk zones exist. In a resource limited-setting, hotspots and clusters should be prioritized for vaccination coverage, and surveillance for FMD should be targeted in eastern areas of Bangladesh and during the post-monsoon season.
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Rahman et al. (2020) conducted an observational in Foot-and-mouth disease (n=548,817). Precipitation in the pre-monsoon season was evaluated on FMD cumulative incidence per 10,000 animals at risk (p=0.0008). Precipitation in the pre-monsoon season was positively associated with foot-and-mouth disease incidence in cattle and buffalo in Bangladesh (p = 0.0008).
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