After the Patron Falls: Iranian Proxy Networks and Hybrid Threats in the Middle East

This article examines the future trajectories of Iranian-linked hybrid threats in Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza under a hypothetical scenario involving the collapse of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Using mechanism-based process tracing, the study extrapolates empirically observed patterns of proxy behaviour following patron disruption to assess plausible post-collapse outcomes. It develops a structured framework that links proxy autonomy, patronage continuity, and domestic constraints to four distinct trajectories: autonomization, fragmentation, external substitution, and decline. Rather than predicting outcomes, the article identifies the conditions under which each trajectory becomes plausible across different regional contexts. The findings contribute to security studies by offering a systematic approach to forecasting proxy dynamics after regime collapse.