Reshaping vehicle electrification pathways under the metal-carbon trade-off

Widespread adoption of electric vehicles is crucial for low-carbon development. However, a potential shortage for the raw metal materials (e.g., lithium, cobalt, and nickel) may become the primary constraint. Previous studies have largely overlooked metal constraints on vehicle electrification pathways, leading to overly optimistic projections for electric vehicles. Hence, this study develops an integrated model, to endogenously capture the supply-demand imbalance of critical metals, and propose sustainable vehicle electrification strategies that can ensure metal security and carbon mitigation for passenger car sector. Here we find that neglecting critical metal constraints would overestimate electric vehicle ownership by up to 42% in 2060 and underestimate carbon dioxide emissions and transition cost by up to 57% and 6% during 2025–2060, respectively for China. We further provide more feasible electrification pathways under multiple uncertainties. Findings here offer insights for major vehicle-manufacturing countries, like Japan and Germany; and mitigate potential cascading disruptions in the global vehicle supply chain. Ignoring critical metal constraints would overestimate electric vehicle ownership and underestimate transition costs and carbon emissions, according to an integrated metal-energy-carbon optimization model.