CHA2DS2‐VASc and R2CHA2DS2‐VASc scores predict mortality in high cardiovascular risk population

Background The CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score, widely used to estimate cardioembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), appears to be useful also in predicting vascular adverse events and death in different sets of patients without AF. The R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score, which includes renal impairment, allows a better prediction of death and thromboembolism in patients without AF. The aims of our study were to assess, in a large sample of patients at high cardiovascular (CV) risk, (i) the correlation between CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc and R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc with all‐cause mortality, and (ii) to compare the performances of CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc and R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc in predicting all‐cause mortality. Methods In this single‐centre prospective observational study, conducted at the Research Hospital ‘Casa Sollievo della Sofferenza’ between June 2016 and December 2018, 1017 CV patients at high risk of undergoing coronary angiography were enrolled. Results CHA₂DS₂‐VASc and R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc scores significantly associated with all‐cause mortality. For each one‐point increase in CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc or R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc scores, mortality increased by almost 1.5‐fold. The R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score (C‐statistic = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.65–76) outperformed the CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score (C‐statistic = 0.66; 95% CI = 0.61–0.71) in predicting 4‐year mortality (delta C‐statistic = 0.05; 95% CI = 0.02–0.07). The better predictive ability of the R‐CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score was also demonstrated by an IDI = 0.027 (95% CI = 0.021–0.034, p < .00001) and a relative IDI = 62.8% (95% CI = 47.9%–81.3%, p < .00001). The R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score correctly reclassified the patients with a NRI = 0.715 (95% = 0.544–0.940, p < .00001). Conclusions The CHA₂DS₂‐VASc and R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc scores are useful predictors of all‐cause mortality in subjects at high CV risk, with the R 2 CHA 2 DS 2 ‐VASc score being the best performer.