Key result
Higher adiposity indices linked to ~11% greater 20-year T2D risk per unit.
Why the study?
The study was conducted to evaluate the association between indices of adiposity and the 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes among apparently healthy adults.
Do adiposity indices predict the 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in apparently healthy adults?
Cohort (n=2,000)
Do adiposity indices predict the 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in apparently healthy adults?
Both traditional obesity-related anthropometric indices and dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices demonstrate moderate and comparable predictive accuracy for the 20-year incidence of type 2 diabetes in healthy adults.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Adiposity indices may refine 20-year T2D risk prediction in healthy adults; leaves open prospective validation before guiding interventions.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between indices of adiposity and 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) among apparently healthy adults participating in the ATTICA cohort study (2002-2022). The present analysis included data from 2000 individuals free of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and T2D at baseline (age 43 ± 13 years; 51% women). Sociodemographic, anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and biochemical parameters were collected at baseline and follow-up examinations. Obesity-related anthropometric indices, in terms of total and central adiposity, along with dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices, were measured. The 20-year cumulative incidence of T2D was 26.3% (95% CI [24.4%, 28.3%]). All indices were independently associated with the 20-year incidence of T2D, with an overall predictive accuracy of approximately 75%. With the exception of LAP (lipid accumulation product), all indices reflecting adipose tissue dysfunction demonstrated moderate discriminative accuracy for incident T2D (C-statistic varied between 0.70 and 0.80) over the 20-year follow-up period, in line with obesity-related anthropometric indices assessing total and central adiposity (C-statistic 0.70-0.80). Obesity-related anthropometric indices as well as dysfunctional adipose tissue-related indices were moderately predictive of long-term T2D onset, highlighting the complex role of increased body weight on glucose metabolism.
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Kechagia et al. (2026) conducted a cohort in Type 2 diabetes (n=2,000). Adiposity indices (e.g., BMI, waist circumference, dysfunctional adipose tissue indices) vs. Lower adiposity indices was evaluated on 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.07-1.15, p=<0.001). Higher baseline adiposity indices, such as BMI (OR 1.11 per 1-unit increment), were independently associated with an increased 20-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes.
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