Key result
Bayesian phylogenetics links Chinese EV-A71 genotype A branch rates to artificial virus reintroduction.
Why the study?
Genotype A enterovirus 71 was allegedly extinct since 1970, but its identification in the 2008-2011 epidemic in China suggested reintroduction of the archive virus.
Bayesian phylogenetic branch rate analysis and mutation mapping demonstrate that the 2008-2011 circulation of EV-A71 genotype A in China resulted from a non-natural laboratory reintroduction of the archive BrCr strain followed by rapid capsid readaptation to human circulation.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Indicates lab reintroduction risks for archived EV-A71; leaves open verification of natural circulation in other outbreaks.
Neurovirulent enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) caused a massive epidemic in China in 2008-2011. While subgenotype C4 was the major causative agent, a few isolates were almost identical to the prototype EV-A71 strain and belonged to genotype A. This variant was allegedly extinct since 1970, and its identification in this epidemic suggests reintroduction of the archive virus. Regression analysis of genetic distances (TempEst software) was of moderate utility due to the low resolution of classical phylogenetic methods. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis (BEAST software) suggested artificial introduction event based on highly aberrant phylogenetic tree branch rates that differed by over three standard deviations from the mean substitution rate for EV71. Manual nucleotide-level analysis was used to further explore the virus spread pattern after introduction into circulation. Upon reintroduction, the virus accumulated up to seven substitutions in VP1, most of them non-synonymous and located within the capsid's canyon or at its rims, compatible with readaptation of a lab strain to natural circulation.
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Vakulenko et al. (2019) studied Enterovirus 71 (EV-A71) infection / Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) (n=113). Bayesian phylogenetic and manual nucleotide-level sequence analysis vs. Prototype EV-A71 strain BrCr (USA, 1970) and globally circulating EV-A71 genotypes was evaluated on Phylogenetic branch substitution rates and ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous substitutions (dN/dS) in the VP1 gene (p=<0.001). Bayesian phylogenetics showed Chinese EV-A71 genotype A ancestral branch rates differed by >3 SD from the mean rate, indicating artificial reintroduction.
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