Prediction of Stable High Blood Pressure in Adolescents

We studied the relative importance of the initial BP and associated factors in adolescents to predict stable high BP. Out of 17,634 children aged 12-13 yrs an upper group/the upper 5% of the distribution curves for both SBP and DBP/a lower group/10% random from the remainder/were yearly followed for 4 yrs/boys: 1680, girls: 1643/. About 2/3 of children remained at the same percentile point: less than 30% and greater than or equal to 70% of SBP and half of them of DBP distribution. Significant positive tracking correlations were found both for SBP and DBP between the initial BP and follow-up BP readings in the same individual. Stepwise regression analysis showed that the SBP taken at the fourth follow-up can be explained by 29% in boys, 24% in girls on the basis of screening SBP and by 47% in boys, 42% in girls on the basis of SBP measured at the four previous examinations. Using discriminant analysis, 6-9 variables out of 18 studied could correctly allocate adolescents with stable SBP or DBP/less than 70% or greater than or equal to 70% at least 3 examinations/. Our study shows the importance of initial BP and a number of factors associated with stable high BP.