Reveals improved win rate through accumulation phase filter application, indicating potential trading strategy effectiveness.
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = ACCUMULATION — improves win rate from 31.5% to 44.2% (+12.6pp, n=120) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the ACCUMULATION phase filter over the current trade window would have rejected 3 of the 4 closed winners (USDCAD LONG, GBPUSD SHORT, USDCHF SHORT) and both closed losses (EURUSD SHORT, GBPUSD LONG), leaving only USDJPY LONG active. The two REJECTED/open trades (XAUUSD SHORT, EURJPY SHORT) would remain unaffected as they are still unresolved. This would reduce the closed-trade win rate from 4 wins / 6 closed = 66.7% to 1 win / 1 closed = 100%, but with a drastic PnL reduction since the 3 rejected winners contributed significant gains. Net PnL delta would be negative, as the filter would have removed profitable trades while retaining only one moderate winner. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, the +12.6pp win-rate improvement from the backtest suggests the filter effectively avoids Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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Andrew Stewart Caldin (2026) studied this question.
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