Why the study?
Published mortality prediction models for acute heart failure predominantly predict short-term mortality up to 90 days, leaving their prognostic performance for long-term mortality unclear.
Does the inclusion of nutritional markers improve the predictive performance of mortality prediction models for long-term mortality in patients with acute heart failure?
Population
609 AHF patients in a prospective registry
Comparison
8 systematically identified short-term mortality prediction models
Design
Prospective registry analysis
Key result
The PROTECT 7-day model demonstrated the highest predictive performance for long-term mortality (c-index ≥0.73) among 8 published mortality prediction models in patients with acute heart failure.
Authors
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Nutritional markers may enhance AHF mortality prediction; leaves open whether adding them improves other models in prospective cohorts.
Observational (n=609)
No
Does the inclusion of nutritional markers improve the predictive performance of mortality prediction models for long-term mortality in patients with acute heart failure?
The PROTECT 7-day model best predicts long-term mortality in acute heart failure, largely due to its inclusion of nutritional markers like serum albumin and total cholesterol, which improve the predictive ability of other models when added.
Nakano et al. (2019) conducted an observational in Acute Heart Failure (n=609). PROTECT 7-day mortality prediction model vs. Other published mortality prediction models (e.g., GWTG-HF, ADHERE) was evaluated on Predictive performance (c-index) for long-term mortality at 180 and 360 days. The PROTECT 7-day model demonstrated the highest predictive performance for long-term mortality (c-index ≥0.73) among 8 published mortality prediction models in patients with acute heart failure.
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