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June 10, 2025BioMedical Engineering OnLineOpen Access

Global, regional, and national burden of acute leukemia and its risk factors from 1990 to 2021 and predictions to 2040: findings from the global burden of disease study 2021

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Authors

XHXinpu HanZYZhangjun YunZLZhu Liu

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Overview

Epidemiological analysis finds rising acute myeloid leukemia incidence in global populations, highlighting expanding healthcare demands and the need for region-specific cancer strategies.

Key Points

  • To assess the global, regional, and national burden of acute leukemia from 1990 to 2021 across demographic factors and project subtype-specific incidence and mortality trends to 2040.
  • Extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to calculate incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), evaluating age-standardized rates (ASRs) and average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) stratified by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).
  • Applied intrinsic estimator age-period-cohort models to analyze temporal patterns, evaluated 21 risk exposures, and projected burden to 2040 using a Bayesian age-period-cohort framework via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation.
  • Global age-standardized rates for acute leukemia declined from 1990 to 2021, with the exception of acute lymphoblastic leukemia age-standardized prevalence rates, which rose significantly (AAPC 0.84, 95% CI 0.59–1.10).
  • Acute myeloid leukemia burden correlated positively with SDI (ρ > 0, P < 0.001), driven primarily by high body mass index, smoking, and occupational benzene or formaldehyde exposure.
  • Projections through 2040 indicate acute myeloid leukemia incidence and mortality cases will rise by 41.56% (to 184,287.88 cases) and 27.16% (to 165,537.59 deaths), respectively, even as acute lymphoblastic leukemia numbers decline.

Cite This Study

Han et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a7daf0fa76b9ebabb04510fhttps://doi.org/10.1186/s12938-025-01403-7
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Also Consider

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  5. 5Geographic, demographic, and risk factor profiles of acute myeloid and acute lymphoblastic leukemia in the United States: Insights from the global burden of disease study 20212025