Heart failure and inflammation-related biomarkers as predictors of new-onset diabetes in the general population

BACKGROUND: There is a strong reciprocal relationship between heart failure (HF) and diabetes mellitus (DM). Shared pathophysiological mechanisms might be a possible explanation. Therefore, we hypothesised that biomarkers linked to HF would also predict new-onset type 2 DM in the general population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We utilized the Prevention of Vascular and Renal End-stage Disease (PREVEND) cohort (mean age 48.9years, 51% female) to study the relationship between HF and DM in 7953 participants free of baseline HF and DM. Multiple HF-related, inflammation-related and renal function-related biomarkers were evaluated regarding their predictive utility in new-onset DM. Incidence of DM in participants who developed HF was 11.8%, versus 5.4% in those who had not developed HF (p<0.001). Incidence of HF in participants who developed DM was 8.5%, versus 3.8% in those who had not developed DM (p<0.001). Classical HF biomarkers, NT-proBNP and hs-TnT were not associated with an increased risk for new-onset DM. However, inflammatory biomarkers hs-CRP [hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, (95% CI 1.05 to 1.29), p=0.005], procalcitonin [HR 1.34, (95% CI 1.07 to 1.69), p=0.012] and PAI-1 [HR 1.55, (95% CI 1.37 to 1.75), p<0.001] remained significantly associated with new-onset DM, even after multivariable adjustment for established predictors of DM. CONCLUSIONS: Although HF and DM have a strong correlation with each other, systemic biomarkers that predict HF do not have a predictive value in new-onset DM. This suggests that other, indirect, pathophysiological mechanisms related to inflammation may explain their strong relation.