Electric vehicle battery materials supply disruptions can be mitigated with chemistry changes and recycling

Battery materials supply chains for plug-in electric vehicles face vulnerabilities to disruptions from geopolitical disputes and natural disasters. Through industry interviews, we identify scenarios that could disrupt materials supply by 2030. We estimate the impacts on US automotive production, prices, and consumer costs in an economic equilibrium model of the US automotive industry. We find year-long disruptions can have large impacts: trade restrictions that reduce processed lithium supply from China by 30% and disasters shutting down the three largest cobalt mines increase average new vehicle prices (including conventional vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles) by $1,100-1,600, costing consumers $14-17 billion. However, feasible changes in battery chemistry and materials supply by 2030 mitigate these negative impacts. If 85% of battery electric vehicle models are produced with lithium iron phosphate batteries and at least 100 kilotonnes of planned production of recycled lithium carbonate equivalent is available, disruption costs decrease by more than half. This study shows that disruptions in US battery materials supply could cost tens of billions of dollars. However, feasible changes in battery chemistry and increasing recycled lithium supply largely reduce the consequences of the disruptions.