The other China shock: EU critical and strategic minerals dependency in comparative-historical perspective

The current geopolitical saliency of critical and strategic minerals (CSMs) in Europe is not novel, but a cyclical phenomenon which has waxed and waned through several iterations since World War I. A comparative-historical analysis of these cycles reveals both recurrent and unique features of the current resurgence. I identify two broad repeating vectors of contestation since WWII. First, Europe has at times faced a threat to conditions of access for critical minerals, whereby peripheral producers have sought a greater share of the surplus from extractive industries (a challenge from the South). Second, great power rivals (principally the Soviet Union during the Cold War and now China) have at times been perceived as threatening Europe’s access per se to CSMs via potential disruption of physical supply lines for geopolitical advantage (a peer challenge, or challenge from the East). The contemporary Chinese challenge synthesises both axes of contestation. China has already successfully parlayed CSM market power into the development of technologically advanced downstream industries, while the overwhelming concentration of extraction and/or processing of many CSMs within China provides the capability to disrupt physical supply. This unique combination presents a new and distinct threat to European positions within key value chains.