Between 1990 and 2021, heart failure cases attributable to cardiovascular diseases rose by 127% to 45.6 million, with projections of 27.0 million males and 21.5 million females by 2035.
The global burden of heart failure attributable to cardiovascular diseases has more than doubled since 1990 and is projected to continue growing, reaching nearly 48.5 million cases by 2035.
Absolute Event Rate: 0% vs 0%
Abstract Background and Aims Heart failure (HF) represents a major global health challenge. This study utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to analyze HF epidemiology from 1990 to 2021 and project disease burden to 2035. Methods We analyzed GBD 2021 data on HF attributable to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) for 1990–2021. Age-period-cohort modelling assessed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort on HF. Joinpoint regression analysis characterized temporal trends and annual percentage changes (APC) in the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and years lived with disability (YLDs) for HF due to ischemic heart disease (IHD) and hypertensive heart disease (HHD). The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model projected HF patient numbers and ASPR for 2022–2035. Results Globally, an increased risk of developing HF started at age 60 and after the period 2005-2009. Birth cohorts showed protective factors after 1955-1959. The Joinpoint model suggested that ASPR of HF resulting from IHD gradually decreased since 2019 (APC = -0.74, 95% UI: -0.94 to -0.55, P 0.001). HHD showed a continuous upward trend in male patients, while decreasing in female after 2019 (APC = -0.47, 95% UI: -0.74 to -0.20, P 0.01). Between 1990 and 2021, CVDs-attributable HF cases and YLDs rose from 20.1 million (95% UI: 17.3 to 23.4) and 1.92 million (95% UI: 1.28 to 2.66) to 45.6 million (95% UI: 39.7 to 52.7) and 4.32 million (95% UI: 2.96 to 5.94), respectively, representing increases of 127% and 126%. ASPR and age-standardized YLD rates increased by 3.74% and 3.36%. Projections indicate the global HF population will reach 27.0 million (95% UI: 21.6 to 32.5) males and 21.5 million (95% UI: 16.8 to 26.3) females by 2035, with stable ASPR. Conclusions The rising absolute number of HF patients indicates a substantial CVD-attributable burden by 2035, necessitating enhanced focus on individuals over 60, particularly those with IHD and HHD.
Liu et al. (Thu,) reported a other. Between 1990 and 2021, heart failure cases attributable to cardiovascular diseases rose by 127% to 45.6 million, with projections of 27.0 million males and 21.5 million females by 2035.