Does the ARIC HF risk score or a simplified NT-proBNP-based score improve prediction of 10-year incident heart failure risk compared to extant risk scores?
A simplified risk score using only age, race, sex, and NT-proBNP provides effective prediction for 10-year incident heart failure risk and is suitable for automated EMR reporting.
The ARIC HF risk score is more parsimonious yet performs slightly better than the extant risk scores in predicting 10-year risk of incident HF. The inclusion of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide markedly improves HF risk prediction. A simplified risk score restricted to a patient's age, race, sex, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide performs comparably to the full score (area under curve, 0.745) and is suitable for automated reporting from laboratory panels and electronic medical records.
Agarwal et al. (2012) studied this question.