Key result
. No new claims.
Why the study?
Hematologic malignancies and heart failure increasingly coexist with aging populations, but population-level mortality patterns among adults with both conditions remain poorly defined.
Observational (n=119,147)
Mortality among U.S. adults with coexisting hematologic malignancy and heart failure declined until 2013 but surged between 2018 and 2021, highlighting a growing cardio-oncology burden.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Reassuring for clinicians managing HM-HF comorbidity; leaves open mechanisms and interventions to address ongoing demographic disparities.
Background Hematologic malignancies (HMs) and heart failure (HF) increasingly coexist as populations age, yet population-level mortality patterns in adults with both conditions remain poorly defined. We characterized long-term temporal trends and demographic disparities in HM–HF mortality and forecasted future rates through predictive modeling. Methods We analyzed U.S. multiple cause-of-death data (1999–2023) for adults aged ≥45 years with both HMs and HF listed on death certificates. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were calculated per 100,000 population. Joinpoint regression was used to identify changes in temporal trends, with analyses stratified by demographics, HM subtype, and geography. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was applied to project mortality trends through 2033. Results Among 119,147 deaths, the overall AAMR was 3.96 per 100,000 (95% CI, 3.85–4.07). Joinpoint analysis identified four phases: a significant decline from 1999 to 2013 (annual percent change [APC] −1.97%), a plateau from 2013 to 2018, a sharp increase from 2018 to 2021 (APC + 8.35%), and subsequent stabilization from 2021 to 2023. Mortality was 85% higher in males than females (5.47 vs. 2.95 per 100,000). Rates increased markedly with age, with adults aged ≥85 years showing the steepest rise after 2014 (APC + 5.75%). Non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White populations had the highest absolute AAMRs. All HM subtypes demonstrated a similar decline–rebound pattern, with subtype-specific differences in the timing of inflection points. ARIMA projections suggested a gradual decline from 4.78 per 100,000 in 2024 to 3.77 per 100,000 by 2033. Conclusions HM–HF mortality declined through 2013 but reversed in the late 2010s, with pronounced increases during 2018–2021 followed by recent stabilization. Persistent disparities by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and geography highlight the need for targeted interventions and strengthened cardio-oncology capacity for this high-risk population.
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Zhang et al. (2026) conducted an observational in Coexisting hematologic malignancy and heart failure (n=119,147). Age-adjusted mortality for coexisting hematologic malignancy and heart failure declined through 2013 but surged significantly from 2018 to 2021 with an annual percent change of +8.35%.
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