Ecosystem Service Losses Under Different Urban Expansion Patterns: A Comparative Case Study of Jinan and Dongying, China

Urban expansion is a major anthropogenic driver of ecosystem service degradation, and its effects differ significantly among expansion patterns and city types. This study selects Jinan, a megacity in Shandong Province, and Dongying, a resource-based city, as study areas. Based on 2000–2020 land cover data, we identified the key urban expansion patterns that lead to ecosystem service losses. We used a built-up land source matrix to analyze the land composition of newly developed built-up areas and adopted the Landscape Expansion Index (LEI) to classify urban expansion into three types: edge-expansion, infilling, and leapfrog expansion. We quantified losses of five core ecosystem services—carbon sequestration, water yield, food production, habitat quality, and soil retention—to identify which expansion pattern exerted the most significant impact on ecosystem service degradation. We further compared loss differences and underlying mechanisms to propose differentiated urban strategies. The results indicate that cultivated land was the primary source in Jinan, while Dongying’s sources were more diverse. Edge-expansion dominated both cities, with a higher proportion in Dongying. Jinan showed a greater increase in leapfrog expansion, and infilling expansion was limited. Leapfrog expansion caused the most severe losses for most services, while edge-expansion dominated food production loss via farmland occupation. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing spatial development and coordinating urban expansion with ecological conservation.