Key result
A prospectively derived and validated clinical model predicted acute heart failure hospitalisation at 1 year with good discrimination (C-statistic 0.81; 95% CI 0.74-0.87 in the validation cohort).
Why the study?
Does a multivariable clinical model accurately predict 1-year risk of acute heart failure syndrome hospitalization in patients with stable chronic heart failure?
Cohort (n=1,090)
Does a multivariable clinical model accurately predict 1-year risk of acute heart failure syndrome hospitalization in patients with stable chronic heart failure?
Effect estimate: C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87)
A simple clinical prediction model using four baseline variables can accurately identify patients with chronic heart failure at low risk for acute heart failure hospitalization within one year.
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May aid risk stratification in stable HF; leaves open need for impact trials and external validation before practice change.
Cubbon et al. (2014) conducted a cohort in Stable chronic heart failure secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction (n=1,090). Multivariable clinical prediction model was evaluated on Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) hospitalisation (C-statistic 0.81, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.87). A prospectively derived and validated clinical model predicted acute heart failure hospitalisation at 1 year with good discrimination (C-statistic 0.81; 95% CI 0.74-0.87 in the validation cohort).
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