Predicted Cardiac Hemodynamic Consequences of the Renal Actions of SGLT2i in the DAPA‐HF Study Population: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis

The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in Heart Failure (DAPA-HF) study demonstrated that dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor (SGLT2i), reduced heart failure hospitalization and cardiovascular death in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HF-rEF), with and without type 2 diabetes mellitus. Multiple potential mechanisms have been proposed to explain this benefit, which may be multifactorial. This study aimed to quantify the contribution of the known natriuretic/diuretic effects of SGLT2is to changes in cardiac hemodynamics, remodeling, and fluid homeostasis in the setting of HF-rEF. An integrated cardiorenal mathematical model was used to simulate inhibition of SGLT2 and its consequences on cardiac hemodynamics in a virtual population of HF-rEF patients generated by varying model parameters over physiologically plausible ranges and matching to baseline characteristics of individual DAPA-HF trial patients. Cardiovascular responses to placebo and SGLT2i over time were then simulated. The baseline characteristics of the HF-rEF virtual population and DAPA-HF were in good agreement. SGLT2i-induced diuresis and natriuresis that reduced blood volume and interstitial fluid volume, relative to placebo within 14 days. This resulted in decreased left ventricular end-diastolic volume and pressure, indicating reduced cardiac preload. Thereafter, blood volume and interstitial fluid volume again began to accumulate, but pressures and volumes remained shifted lower relative to placebo. After 1 year, left ventricle mass was lower and ejection fraction was higher than placebo. These simulations considered only hemodynamic consequences of the natriuretic/diuretic effects of SGLT2i, as other mechanisms may contribute additional benefits besides those predictions.